Very few products are guaranteed the sort of success that Sony’s Playstation 3 will achieve. Sony’s success is so assured that they have barely done anything to publicize the console since the first wave of information hit more than a year ago. They also did very little to counteract Microsoft’s Xbox 360 release, aside from announcing a conveniently timed clip for the hotly anticipated Metal Gear Solid 4. Despite the lack of information and the apparent non-existence of a working PS3 unit, Sony is still adamant that they will get the console out sometime this spring. If that goal seems somewhat lofty, you’re not alone.
Practically every industry analyst, even those who don’t normally cover gaming trends, is betting that Sony will most definitely delay the console. I will come clean and admit that I have severe doubts about the console as well. With a delay inevitable, the real question is when the PS3 will actually come out, and this is where the tech pundits divide. In my opinion, Sony isn’t foolish enough to let Microsoft remain the only next-generation console for another holiday season. Given that, I predict that we’ll see the PS3 sometime between September and Christmas. A fall release is far more likely than a summer release, which is a season the gaming industry tends to avoid.
Why is everyone so certain that the current PS3 timetable is unreasonable? The answer lies in the console’s next-generation hardware, much of which isn’t available anywhere else in the marketplace today. The two big problems I foresee for Sony is in the production of the PS3’s fabled “Cell” processor, as well as the production of the Blu-ray drive and discs that will play and contain the games.
The Cell processor, which was developed by IBM, Sony, and Toshiba, is supposed to herald a new age of consumer devices. It was developed to be a versatile and scalable solution for servers and other consumer devices in addition to the Playstation 3. (wikipedia.org/Cell (microprocessor)) There is no question that the Cell will be a very powerful chip, but I seriously doubt that Sony will be able to affordably and reliably manufacture enough Cell chips for a spring launch. The same is true for the Blu-ray technology which the PS3 relies on. Both of these technologies will be revolutionary once they become a reality, but Sony has done nothing to prove these technologies are ready for public consumption. When you take into account that stand-alone Blu-ray players will probably go for upwards of $500 this spring, it seems unlikely that Sony will be able to mass-produce the technology for a game console in the next few months.
With two of its most important hardware components in questionable availability, it’s no surprise that we still haven’t seen a working Playstation 3. A simple demo of a working PS3 box would easily allay their fan’s worries, but it seems like Sony can’t even manage that. In the end, the Playstation 3 is currently nothing more than a hodge-podge of unproven technology.
I haven’t yet mentioned the eventual pricing, which even by Sony’s accounts will be exorbitant. Ken Kutaragi, the venerated father of the Playstation, has gone on record saying that the PS3 will be much more expensive than the average new console. A higher than normal price is to be expected given the new technology in the device. While many have complained about the Xbox 360’s $400 price tag, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PS3 is launched with a price over $500.
Sony doesn’t seem to be content with having the PS3 just serve as a gaming device; they want it to be the centerpiece of your home entertainment system. This is primarily why the chose to include Blu-ray with the console—it would be the first Blu-ray player for most consumers. I have to question this approach, mainly because it’s diverting attention from the console’s main purpose as a gaming machine. Sony has already tried to turn their PSP into a media device, and that has left the gaming aspects of that machine in the dust. While it’s difficult to screw up such a sure thing, I can only hope that Sony’s hubris doesn’t screw up their only worthwhile product line.
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Amherst Bytes #22: PS3 Update
Very few products are guaranteed the sort of success that Sony’s Playstation 3 will achieve. Sony’s success is so assured that they have barely done anything to publicize the console since the first wave of information hit more than a year ago. They also did very little to counteract Microsoft’s Xbox 360 release, aside from announcing a conveniently timed clip for the hotly anticipated Metal Gear Solid 4. Despite the lack of information and the apparent non-existence of a working PS3 unit, Sony is still adamant that they will get the console out sometime this spring. If that goal seems somewhat lofty, you’re not alone.
Practically every industry analyst, even those who don’t normally cover gaming trends, is betting that Sony will most definitely delay the console. I will come clean and admit that I have severe doubts about the console as well. With a delay inevitable, the real question is when the PS3 will actually come out, and this is where the tech pundits divide. In my opinion, Sony isn’t foolish enough to let Microsoft remain the only next-generation console for another holiday season. Given that, I predict that we’ll see the PS3 sometime between September and Christmas. A fall release is far more likely than a summer release, which is a season the gaming industry tends to avoid.
Why is everyone so certain that the current PS3 timetable is unreasonable? The answer lies in the console’s next-generation hardware, much of which isn’t available anywhere else in the marketplace today. The two big problems I foresee for Sony is in the production of the PS3’s fabled “Cell” processor, as well as the production of the Blu-ray drive and discs that will play and contain the games.
The Cell processor, which was developed by IBM, Sony, and Toshiba, is supposed to herald a new age of consumer devices. It was developed to be a versatile and scalable solution for servers and other consumer devices in addition to the Playstation 3. (wikipedia.org/Cell (microprocessor)) There is no question that the Cell will be a very powerful chip, but I seriously doubt that Sony will be able to affordably and reliably manufacture enough Cell chips for a spring launch. The same is true for the Blu-ray technology which the PS3 relies on. Both of these technologies will be revolutionary once they become a reality, but Sony has done nothing to prove these technologies are ready for public consumption. When you take into account that stand-alone Blu-ray players will probably go for upwards of $500 this spring, it seems unlikely that Sony will be able to mass-produce the technology for a game console in the next few months.
With two of its most important hardware components in questionable availability, it’s no surprise that we still haven’t seen a working Playstation 3. A simple demo of a working PS3 box would easily allay their fan’s worries, but it seems like Sony can’t even manage that. In the end, the Playstation 3 is currently nothing more than a hodge-podge of unproven technology.
I haven’t yet mentioned the eventual pricing, which even by Sony’s accounts will be exorbitant. Ken Kutaragi, the venerated father of the Playstation, has gone on record saying that the PS3 will be much more expensive than the average new console. A higher than normal price is to be expected given the new technology in the device. While many have complained about the Xbox 360’s $400 price tag, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PS3 is launched with a price over $500.
Sony doesn’t seem to be content with having the PS3 just serve as a gaming device; they want it to be the centerpiece of your home entertainment system. This is primarily why the chose to include Blu-ray with the console—it would be the first Blu-ray player for most consumers. I have to question this approach, mainly because it’s diverting attention from the console’s main purpose as a gaming machine. Sony has already tried to turn their PSP into a media device, and that has left the gaming aspects of that machine in the dust. While it’s difficult to screw up such a sure thing, I can only hope that Sony’s hubris doesn’t screw up their only worthwhile product line.