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Amherst Bytes #20: HD Media

High-definition video has been a long time in coming, as I’ve discussed before. Over the past few years we have finally begun to see HD content over cable and satellite, but we’re still waiting for the HD equivalent of DVD’s. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like HD media will come easy. The movie studios are currently battling it out over two high-definition media formats, HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Both formats wish to take the place of DVD, but as we have seen with the VHS/Betamax debacle, there can be only one.While there are significant technical differences between the two, the most obvious disparity is in the amount of data each disc holds. A single layered Blu-ray disc holds 25GB compared to HD-DVD’s 15GB. It is assumed that most commercial discs will be dual layered, effectively doubling those sizes. Comparatively, a single layer of standard DVD is about 4.7GB, and most commercial DVD’s are dual layered as well.

As you can see, Blu-ray is a much bigger leap beyond current DVD technology, and consequently more future proof, than HD-DVD. On the other hand, HD-DVD is easier and cheaper to manufacture, and may be able to offer the same quality as Blu-ray at a lower price, despite the smaller disc size. Attempts were made at coming to some sort of agreement between the two standards, but those plans fell through due to the obstinacy of both sides. In the end, the Blu-ray and HD-DVD camps were more concerned with the superiority of their own format than with the convenience of the consumer.

Now this wouldn’t be such a big deal if one of the formats was quick to be defeated, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening anytime soon either. Sony, the biggest proponent of the Blu-ray format, will be supporting it extensively with the Playstation 3. Their next generation console will be able to play Blu-ray movies, and the games will ship on Blu-ray discs. The success of the PS3 will greatly determine the popularity of Blu-ray discs in general. Microsoft, along with several PC manufacturers, is backing the HD-DVD format instead. Just recently, MS announced an HD-DVD add-on drive for the Xbox 360. While the 360 won’t run any games from HD-DVD discs, this optional drive will allow anyone with a 360 to view HD-DVD movies. With such strong support on both sides, it looks like this format war will be drawn out much longer than the VHS/Beta fiasco.

We can also expect these new HD media formats to be much more expensive than DVD’s are today. Back when the DVD format was new, the players cost upwards of $250 and the discs around $30. We can assume that the new Blu-ray and HD-DVD players to be similarly priced, although the discs are another story. Just recently, Sony announced that Blu-ray movies will most likely go for around $30-$40 at first. This is where things seem to be getting out of hand.

Given that most new DVDs today cost under $20, and significantly below that if you catch a good deal, I don’t see how they can justify charging more than a $10 premium for the HD version. This is not the best way to spur the public to adopt their new technology, especially when most need to buy a new TV and disc player just to play these discs. We haven’t heard very much on the pricing on HD-DVD movies, but I would expect it to be slightly cheaper than the Blu-ray discs because the discs are easier to make.

Pricing is going to be a huge deciding factor for consumers, especially when faced with a cheaper DVD alternative. Consider the television box set, one of DVD’s biggest cash cows. Currently a box for a full season of 24 will run you around $50 at most stores. For the HD version of the same box set to be successful, it can’t be too much more than the standard DVD version. As a consumer myself, I wouldn’t want to pay more than $20 more for the HD version. Finding this balance will be key to the success of the Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats.


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