Video Games

2007: Year of the Xbox 360?

12.28.06 | Comments

So 2007 is upon us, and with all the next-generation systems out and fighting for dominance I figure that now is the best time to start making predictions. It’s pretty obvious that the Playstation 3 is in the losing spot right now (I can’t remember the last time I’ve read good news about it), but should we expect that to change as the console matures? Will Sony be able to manufacture the consoles more efficiently and make up for its sloppy launch? And what of the 360 and Wii?

Honestly, it seems as if gaming and tech pundits are currently overly enamored with the PS3’s fate, and for good reason I suppose. It’s hard not to criticize Sony’s hubristic handling of the PS3 launch, and watching their further screw ups with the console is like watching a car accident in slow motion–you really can’t help but stare at it. Still, looking at the upcoming 2007 releases for the PS3, I was surprised at how few major releases there were: Virtua Fighter 5 and Assassin’s Creed look great, but will also be out for the Xbox 360. There is of course Final Fantasy XIII, Heavenly Sword and Metal Gear Solid 4, but a few major exclusives don’t really make for a successful year in my book.

The Wii was the surprise success of 2006, but will Nintendo’s wunderkind stay that way throughout 2007? I hate to say it, but it seems as if Nintendo may be making the same mistake with the Wii as they did early on with the Gamecube. The first-party titles worth owning, namely Smash Bros., Mario Kart, and Zelda, came out within a year or so of the systems launch, and afterwards the system received only a few notable titles. According to the IGN Wii release date list, in 2007 Wii owners only have a few games truly worth looking forward to: Metroid Prime 3, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Paper Mario, and Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

Then again, since the Wii is backwards compatible with all Gamecube games, I suspect many Wii owners will be catching up on four-star GC titles that they’ve missed as well. If I were Nintendo, I would market this capability much more to clueless parents. The Gamecube has a wealth of family-friendly titles that also happen to be great games (see Paper Mario, Zelda: Wind Waker, the Metroid Prime series, and pretty much every first party Nintendo game). The failure of the Gamecube may actually help the Wii: Instead of being faced with a game drought, Nintendo could just direct people to already existing titles.

Then there is the Xbox 360. In terms of games alone, 2007 looks like the “best year ever” for the system. Must-buy titles abound (again, according to the 360 IGN release list): Lost Planet, Alan Wake, Too Human, Bio Shock, Mass Effect, and let’s not forget Halo 3. Then there are the jump-ship titles that used to be PS3 exclusive, including Assassin’s Creed, Virtua Fighter 5, and I’m sure more to come.

If we were to judge the value of these consoles solely on the number of quality games in 2007, the Xbox 360 is the clear leader. Of course, this does nothing to predict the actual success of the consoles or games. It’s a well known fact that casual gamers (those whose game collections mainly consist of the various incarnations of Madden) often have incredibly disparate tastes than gaming enthusiasts. The big problem is that there are far more casual gamers than enthusiasts, so all of my theorizing may end up being for naught. Even taking casual gamers into account though, I think the 360 may end up having a much stronger year than most suspect.

Update 1: Digg poster “nkInch” kindly commented and reminded me of a few other PS3 titles I missed. In addition to Heavenly Sword above, I forgot to include Lair, Warhawk, and Motorstorm, all of which were used to pimp the PS3 tech and I just forgot about them. The same user also mentioned Devil May Cry 4, Jak & Daxter, Rachet and Clank (why do I always get those two mixed up?), and Socom.I actually considered the last three in my initial post, but didn’t include them because they weren’t major releases in my book, although they will probably end up shipping many copies on name alone. DMC 4, on the other hand, will most likely end up as a cross platform game–especially since Capcom seems to be giving the 360 some major loving. Out of the first three, Lair is the only one that seems to have the potential to be a truly great game, but of course Warhawk and Motorstorm will probably improve from the demos we’ve seen.

Update 2:The fact that so many developers are second-guessing former PS3 exclusives is a definite sign that things did not end up as Sony wanted. In the end, this added developer support is nothing but good news for 360 owners. Historically it’s been developer support that truly makes or breaks a console, just look at the Gamecube, Dreamcast, and Xbox 1 performance in Japan. As soon as the developers begin to leave things look grim. That’s not to say any developer is really going to give up on Sony, but the loss of exclusives could hurt Sony just as much.


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Viewing 18 Comments

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    Thanks for updating and including my comments.

    One more point, however. Jak, Ratchet & Clank, and Socom aren't major releases? Socom is the most widely played online console game ever; more than Halo or any Xbox or 360 game. Jak is one of the best selling console titles ever and Ratchet is an extremely highly reviewed series.

    "they will probably end up shipping many copies on name alone"

    You make say the same negative comment about any other popular series. Those series have built good names by making amazing, high quality, innovative games. I don't see why the next games would be any less.

    I appreciate that you listen to people that disagree with you (and even include their comments in your post).
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    forget a big one in GTA IV of exclusivity lost.
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    I think you forgot a few xbox 360 titles : Crackdown, Huxley, Shadowrun, Fable 2, Forza motorsport 2, Age of Conan, Blue Dragon, Lost oddyssey, Two worlds. I am prity sure there are more games that MIGHT become successes. Expecially games like huxley and shadowrun might turn 2007 to xbox 360 advantage. Both are online games and both are fps.
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    The 360 is going to have a great year, but of course the one thing hamstringing it is the Japanese refusal to accept it. That's going to keep the machine from getting full support of all the Japanese devs no matter what happens.

    As for the Wii, don't be so quick to compare it to GameCube. Even in its early days when it showed promise, GameCube was practically ignored by the media and by non-core gamers. The Wii has already done much better in this regard, and while its lineup for 2007 seems thin right now, its success so far will get more third parties on board; there's no doubt about that.

    PS3 just badly needs the GTA3 of this generation to get off the ground. The price of the console is the biggest roadblock for them, and while games like Jak, Ratched and SOCOM were good sellers for the PS2, those games don't sell systems. PS2 had the GTA series to thank most for that, and PS3 needs its killer app for people to get over that pricetag. If it doesn't...
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    I actually didn't know that about the Socom series, but I'd like to see someone compare its online time to Halo 2. With more than four billion games played in Halo 2 (http://www.bungie.net/News/Story.aspx?link=four...), I had always figured that was the most played online console game.

    As for the Jak and Rachet series, I know they are certainly quality titles. However, I'm still not convinced that they'll be groundbreaking next-gen games in the way that the non-franchise titles on the 360 will be. I'm sure they'll be great titles for people who already own PS3's, but are they sort of thing that will make people buy PS3's? Looking at the 360 line-up, there seem to be quite a few more original "must own" games.

    Reading my post over there does seem to be a 360 bias--probably because I didn't plan to spend so much time on the other system's releases. It just pains me personally to see people struggling to purchase a PS3 right now when there aren't many great games to enjoy for quite a while. Really, how many times can you play Resistance? The post was originally spurred on by my increasing frustration that people aren't recognizing the 360 as the better value right now.
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    You know...I really hoped for more with the PS3.

    Whether it has exclusive titles or not...I can do alot more with the ps3 than the other consoles right now. I really liked the idea of running linux on it...little homebrew server for when I'm not at home playing games.

    My major issue is the insistance of including the blue ray dvd stuff. A much better move would be to do a standard removable dvd drive...something that can be replaced down the line. How much would this cut the cost? I've seen cost breakdowns of $300 (mind you this is speculative) increase for the BRDVD alone. Yes they lost still on the console initially...thats what happens when you add in really sweet technologies like the cell processor...but hell, $400 for a 60GB version alone would make these fly off the shelves. (dont tell me they are flying off now...we all know they are getting returned for initial suckage).

    This just reminds of like the UMD push all over again.

    Yes, I own a 360...yes I love it...and no I didnt pay an obscene amount for it.
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    I think Motorstorm is already shaping up to become a good game, so I think Warhawk is the one of the 3 (Lair, Warhawk, Motorstorm) that needs most to give hope that it'll be good.

    I know that I am quite excited by the Untitled Naughty Dog game: http://ps3.ign.com/articles/706/706003p1.html Naughty Dog always seems to know how to make a fun game with a good storyline.

    And curious about the Afrika game. Add to that hopefully a new Hot Shots Golf & Gran Turismo, there are alot of releases that may make me get a PS3. I'm sure there must be more 360 games, but the lists for me compare

    360: Lost Planet, Alan Wake, Too Human, Bio Shock, Mass Effect & Halo 3

    PS3: FF XII, Heavenly Sword, Lair, Motorstorm, Warhawk, DMC 4, Jak 4, Ratchet and Clank PS3, Socom, MGS 4, Hot Shots Golf, Gran Turismo, Afrika

    So I find myself looking more forward to getting a PS3 and the games that are coming out for it more than the games that will be coming out for my 360.

    And while I love the Live Arcard idea, so far the only game that I think has really made it is Geo Wars. (Which rules to high heaven! :) There are *so* many ports on there. It was cool at first, but now I'm wanting something original. I mean, I'll get worms w/out a doubt, but is another port. For the PS3 network, I've already got Flow & Calling All Cars, so in a couple of months, the PS3 could have as many "arcarde" type games that the 360 has had for 14 months. Be curious how this part shapes up over time.

    So I look at the above games you listed, and feel it is a better year for the PS3?

    Just some thoughts
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    You're mistaken, 2007 is the year of the PC
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    I think you left out some major Wii games.
    Wario Ware: Smooth Moves
    Sonic and the Secret Rings
    Wii Play (free controller)
    Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Crystal Bearers
    Animal Crossing
    Sadness
    Project H.A.M.M.E.R.
    Fire Emblem
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    Socom is NOT even close to the most played game on-line. Halo 2 has much more playtime than socom 1 and 2 combined. socom hasent even sold more copies than halo 2, which is funny seeming how their is 100,000 million PS2's, and 40 million xbox's. I am not even taking into consideration Counter strike and any of the Battlefield games. If all PS3 owners have to look forward to on-line is socom (like on the PS2) than thats more evidence that the PS3 is worthless.
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    I don't get it? You say the 360 is the must have system for 2007, yet you list: "Lost Planet, Alan Wake, Too Human, Bio Shock, Mass Effect, and let’s not forget Halo 3". Last I checked, Alan Wake and Bio Shock are coming out for PC, Too Human is not a must have title (if Jak and Daxter or Ratchet and Clank aren't, how can you list a title that's 1. Been in development since the N64, 2. Little to nothing is known about it, 3. Not based off any known franchise, 4. The demo at E3 was terrible). The only titles from thast list are Halo 3 and Mass Effect, as most likely Lost Planet will come out on PS3.

    I don't get how these kind of posts can be dugg on Digg. You expect to be taken seriously, yet not only are you just some random person on the internet, you don't even take the time to put the proper information in your post to get any sort of point across. You leave off many big titles for both PS3 and Wii (you left off things like EyeToy and Singstar for PS3, Sinsgtar having sold over 3 million copies for PS2, Devil May Cry 4, Jak and Daxter and Ratchet and Clank, Lair and Motorstorm). For Wii, you leave off games like Animal Crossing and Wario Ware, both of which are big sellers. On top of that, 360 has been out for over a year now, while PS3 and Wii JUST arrived, and so there are probably more exclusive titles that will be announced in the next few weeks.

    I appreciate that you are an intelligent person, but the fact that your story now has 300+ diggs and is being portrayed as having some semblence of objectivity and information for the masses, I have to step up and question this overall inaccurate blog post. When you start dealing on the level where you are submitting information that is taken as unbiased opinion by the large readership of Digg, you have to put slightly more effort into the information you are submitting.
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    I think that you have forgot about Tekken on the ps3, the fact that sony and nintendo both just released their console and that not much games have been annouced by either in-house development or 3rd parties since theyve got their dev kit later than those 360s...

    however theres that Splinter Cell on the 360 thats for sure going to be hot !

    but Im betting its going to be either wii or ps3 year... lets say that 2006 was the 360 year if you dont count the ds as a console... more of a portable one.
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    Totally false statement about SoCom vs. Halo 2. Games played, time spent, and number of players all are complete blowouts favoring Halo 2.
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    Believe me when i say,
    and i will say this only once right now
    proof Xbox360 dominates
    "Gears of War"
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    Sorry but I'm gonna have to disagree. While you make some good points about PS3s exclusivity, you did miss those major titles like Ratchet, and Jak, even if we aren't sure if they will be out in 07 or not. DMC4 should be out in 07, and DMC is one of the biggest PS franchises, although it looks like it may be moving to the 360, but we don't know that for sure. Not too many people care about all the 360 titles you mentioned such as Alan Wake, Bio Shock, and more.The fact is that those Xbox 360 titles don't appeal to a large audience, which is where the PS3 and especially Wii suceed. Those 5 Wii titles you mentioned are enough to take down anything 360 or PS3 offers. I bet you that Smash Brawl will almost be able to take on Halo 3 single handedly. Smash Melee was almost as popular as Halo 2, and it wasn't even online. Then, pair that up with a new Mario platformer, a new Metroid Prime, and the plethora of games you missed - Wii Play, Wario Ware, Pokemon Battle Revolution, and possibilities of a Wii Music, a growing Virtual Console list, and much more. Pair that with extreme fast console attach rate of the Wii, selling about 1/3 the units the 360 has had in a year, in just over a month. Let's face it, even if 08 might not be as nice for the Wii, 2007 belongs to the Wii.
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    not impressed with the 360............then again, im not a fan of the x-box. the games look great, but that controller sux sooooooooo bad. get a new controller, then we will talk.

    2007 the year of ps3........bash all you like fanboys, just wait and see.
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    Hi,
    Nice article but i think your being a bit harsh on Sony and there prospects.

    I have owned a Wii which i thought was really fun but i sold it after two months.Why?, because i looked at the support the console would be getting and most of it was ports with wii remote controls slapped on or tech demo type games (Elebits ect).While the Wii is a good console, some developers will use it solely to make a quick buck.As it's aimed at casual gamers i fear people could get ripped off on the quality of some games.Also Nintendo were right to downplay technology but come on.There using overclocked Gamecube technology with some extra memory.I don't think Wii will last four years.In a couple of years can you really see developers supporting Xbox360 and PS3 making games for Wii? I think Nintendo will be left once again to support it's own console in terms of games.Also the lack of online support was a major annoyance.I think there gonna have like 4 online titles by the end of the year and that sucks.Also the friend code is suicide by Nintendo

    I'm in the process of buying a Xbox360 to go next to my PS3.It seems many other gamers are going with the Wii60 or PSWii combination but i think a PS360 is a good combo.

    The 360 has a great online in Xboxlive and Arcade. It's game library is finally looking good and future games such as Forza 2 and Alan wake look good too.

    The PS3 has free online (okay it needs a little fine tuning but so did 360 at the beginning) it comes with a big hard drive and the movie playback on blu ray is very impressive and i think i'll use it over HD DVD on the 360.The games on PS3 at the moment aren't great (apart from Resistance) but i got a PS3 for the future games.MGS4 just has Killer App written all over it and Heavenly Sword has a art style many games can only dream about achieving.Liar, warhawk and motorstorm look good as do many other titles coming soon.

    People may back away from a PS360 combo because of the amount of multi platform games but both 360 and ps3 will have more than enough exclusives to justify having both.Also some multi platform games may have added features on one but not on the other.If you have both you can just choose which you want.
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    lol ok what have you guys been smoking, ratchet and clank is not by any means a major franchise its a staple, nothing more. Super Smash Brothers has never come close to the popularity of Halo, Socom has never come close to being the most played multilayer game.

    Xbox 360 Games of 2007

    Too Human (the game has been updated and the new version is suppose to be a amazing.)
    Halo 3
    Bioshock
    Blue Dragon
    Lost Oddessy
    Mass Effect
    C&C 3 (woot PC is better though)
    AC (even thought its on the PS3)
    SC 5
    Fable 2
    Alan Wake
    Forza 2
    Lost Planet
    Crackdown

    Please don't add crap like a golf game to a list of must have titles, because no matter how much you may want it to be good, its never going to be big.

    Also have you seen the figures, yes the Wii is selling a lot faster, but the game attach rate for the system is freaking .08, that means that most people play Wii sports, that they get with their system and nothing else.

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